{"id":20328,"date":"2022-10-15T00:00:53","date_gmt":"2022-10-15T00:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tamus.edu\/data-science\/?p=20328"},"modified":"2025-10-06T20:17:05","modified_gmt":"2025-10-06T20:17:05","slug":"factors-influencing-ihe-enrollments-birth-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tamus.edu\/data-science\/2022\/10\/15\/factors-influencing-ihe-enrollments-birth-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"Factors Influencing IHE Enrollments: Birth Rates"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Factors Influencing IHE Enrollments: Birth Rates<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
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In our previous blog post, we explored data from the\u00a0Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education’s (WICHE) <\/span>Knocking at the College Door<\/a><\/i> report that is predicting\u00a0<\/span>a -10.4% decrease in high school graduates from 2026 to 2037. <\/b>One of the primary factors contributing to the double-digit drop in HS grads in the next 15 years is the “birth dearth” that has been occurring in the United States over the past 15 years. Using natality data from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)<\/a>\u00a0and The Texas Department of State Health Services<\/a>, this blog post will take a closer look at one of the challenges facing higher education enrollment in the next few decades.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Birth Rates Across USA and Within Texas<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
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When reviewing natality data across the United States, it is clear that 2007 served as a\u00a0 high-water mark for births in this country. As shown in the top “USA Trends (1995-2020)”\u00a0visualization, there were 4.32 million live births across the USA in 2007. During the 12-year span from 1995-2007, the growth in births from 3.9 million to 4.32 million represented 420K more births, which was a 10.8% increase. However, in the following 13 years from 2007-2020, the total number of live births in America fell by 710K births to 3.61 million, which was a 16.4% decrease. Across the 25 years in the CDC natality data, the drop from 3.9 million births in 1995 to 3.61 million births in 2020 represents a 290K decrease (-7.4%) in annual live births.<\/p>\n

Closely-related to number of live births is the birth rate per 1,000 in the total population<\/a>. The birth rate per 1K is calculated by dividing the number of births by the total population, and then multiplying by 1,000. For example, at the peak of 4.32 million births in 2007, the total population of the United States was 301.23 million, which gives a birth rate per 1K of 14.3. The bottom visualization to the right shows the birth rate per 1K people in the United States has fallen from 14.6 in 1995 to 10.9 in 2020, representing a 25.3% drop in birth rate per 1K in 25 years.<\/p>\n

Although not shown in the USA Trends data to the right, another measure related to births in America is Total Fertility Rate, which “estimates the number of births that a hypothetical group of 1,000 women would have over their lifetimes, based on the age-specific\u00a0birth rate in a given year” (<\/span>CDC Vital Statistics<\/a>). Generally-speaking,\u00a0<\/span>a fertility rate of 2.1 (or 2,100 births per 1,000 women) is needed for a generation to replace itself<\/a>.<\/span>\u00a0As these total live birth figures have continued to drop, the\u00a0<\/span>fertility rate for US women has been below 1.8 births per woman<\/a>\u00a0since 2017 and is projected to remain well-below replacement levels for the foreseeable future.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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