Dr. Parr Rosson, Texas Cooperative Extension economist and director of
the Center for North American Studies at Texas A&M University. (Texas
Agricultural Experiment Station photo by Blair Fannin)
(College Station)—Consumers could see temporary price increases in some food items if the port of New Orleans is closed for an extended period, a Texas Cooperative Extension economist said.
"If we see a lot of backup or inability to move tropical products or fresh produce into the United States, certainly in the near term we could see some price spikes," said Dr. Parr Rosson, economist and director of the Center for North American Studies at Texas A&M University.
"How long that would last is really difficult to say," he said. "I would think that in the matter of a few weeks, though, we would see things stabilize because there are alternative sources of supply, alternative ports for bringing in cargo, and alternative modes of transportation. It's just a matter of getting the logistics and cargo moving through those alternative systems."
Cold food products, such as fresh grapes and frozen broilers, can be shipped through Houston and Corpus Christi, Rosson said.
Corn, soybean and some wheat is exported out of New Orleans. Japan and China were the biggest recipients of corn and soybean exports from New Orleans ports in 2003 and 2004, Rosson said. Last year, Japan received 1.9 million tons of corn and 1.6 million in 2003. China received 2.3 million tons of U.S. soybeans in 2004.
Some rice is also shipped from New Orleans to both Asian and Latin markets. A small amount of wheat is also exported from the New Orleans area, Rosson noted.
The extent of hurricane damage at the New Orleans ports will dictate if there will be a backlog of products coming in and going out, he said.
"The real critical issue is how much damage there is to the grain elevators, (and) loading and unloading facilities," he said. "You've also got to factor how much debris is blocking the Mississippi River, and how much cargo is waiting up river waiting to come down."
The other question is how much product is up river on the barges waiting to come down, he said.
"If it appears that delays and disruptions will extend for weeks, then alternative
modes of moving cargo off of the barge onto truck or rail come into play, " Rosson
said.
Cargo could be transferred to alternative ports, such as Houston or Galveston, "depending
on how much product they can handle."
"Some of it could go to Jacksonville or Brunswick," Rosson said. "Beyond
that, we don't know the extent of the damage in Mobile and some of the
Mississippi ports."
Until that is evaluated, there is uncertainty, he said.
"But I think contingencies are in place and we'll begin to see things pick up and move in a few days to a week."